On August 3, the Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq al-Awsat
quoted "informed Iraqi sources in Amman" as saying that
Saddam’s younger son, Qusay Hussein, would assume control of
the government in the event of an emergency. In addition, the
paper reported Qusay’s responsibilities were to be enlarged to
include security in Baghdad as well as overseeing the army, the
Republican Guard and the intelligence services. Qusay has
traditionally kept a low profile and has worked primarily in
overseeing the intelligence apparatus that helps to keep his father
in power. Reports of Qusay’s elevation followed a report from AP
earlier in the day indicating that Izzak Ibrahim, the second-ranking
official in the Iraqi government, was granted a visa to Austria to
seek hospital treatment. Ibrahim is deputy chairman of the
Revolutionary Command Council, deputy Secretary-General of
the Baath Party and deputy commander of the army. He is also in
his early 60s and reportedly in bad health. On August 4, the
Asharq al-Aswat report on Qusay was ridiculed in the Iraqi
newspaper Babel, which is owned by Uday Hussein, Qusay’s
older brother. The Babel report claimed that the Asharq al-Aswat
report was the product of "ignorant enemies" of Iraq. Uday was
long seen as an heir-apparent to his father, but he was seriously
injured in an assassination attempt in 1996. However, Uday was
seen on Iraqi TV walking without assistance for the first time in
June.
What is behind this apparent sudden burst of activity on the Iraqi
succession front? There are several possibilities. The first is that
the report was simply fabricated by the Saudis in order to stir up
unrest within Baghdad’s ruling family. The problem is, Uday’s
heated response and Qusay’s lack of comment suggest there
was some truth to the matter. As of August 6, Stratfor has found
no official denial or conformation of the Asharq al-Aswat report
other than the one published in Uday’s paper. It is possible that
Ibrahim is being marginalized because of his ill health and
Saddam felt the need to clarify things in the event of a crisis. Uday
may be in the same boat as Ibrahim, his efforts to show off his
recovery notwithstanding. It is interesting to note that Ibrahim and
Uday are closely allied, as Uday is married to Ibrahim’s daughter.
All this suggests a possible split may be forming within the Tikrit
clan, though it is not clear whether Saddam is intentionally driving
that split, or whether he is reacting to it.
Another intriguing possibility is that 62-year-old Saddam may be
preparing to step down. July 16 marked the 20th anniversary of
his accession to power. In addition, the UN Security Council is
currently debating the future of the Iraqi sanctions regime .
If Saddam were suddenly to retire, the debate at the UN would
be thrown into an entirely new light.
The removal of Saddam from power has long been a stated goal
of the U.S., but Washington would be placed in an uncomfortable
position if another Hussein succeeded him. If Saddam were
contemplating retirement, he would want to make very sure that
whomever he placed in power would have the strength (and
health) to maintain a firm grip and could protect him from his
enemies, both foreign and domestic. Qusay now seems ideally
placed to be able to do this. One would also assume that
Saddam would want to exercise considerable power behind the
scenes in such a scenario. It would be important for Saddam to
know that he could count on his successor in all respects, and it is
possible that he feels safer with Qusay than either Uday or
Ibrahim. The juggling for the position of heir-apparent in Baghdad
at this time could be more than just a coincidence.