Iran and Syria Pursue their own Plans Against Saddam Hussein
Iran and Syria appear to have begun coordinating efforts aimed at
the overthrow of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. On December 1,
the London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat cited
"diplomatic sources" as reporting that Tehran and Damascus would
intensify contacts regarding developments in Iraq. The newspaper
reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi held
telephone consultations with his Syraian counterpart, Farouq al-
Sharaa, on the evening of November 29. Additionally, Iranian
Vice President Hasan Habibi will reportedly lead Iran's
delegation at joint Higher Committee meetings this weekend in
Damascus.
After failing, despite repeated threats of military force, to
convince Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to either submit to UN
Security Council resolutions or step down, U.S. President Bill
Clinton approved $97 million in funding to the Iraqi opposition
to facilitate Hussein's overthrow. Yet a U.S. and British
sponsored meeting of Iraqi opposition leaders two weeks ago in
London ended with no firm agreement on an anti-Saddam strategy,
and the money promised by the U.S. has yet to be distributed
owing to a dispute over which groups qualify for funding. Having
even less luck launching the Iraqi opposition than launching
cruise missiles, the Clinton administration began hinting
strongly in late November that it wouldn't mind at all if Iran
organized an uprising.
While Iran and Syria appear at first glance to be heeding
Washington's call, that is not apparent in their rhetoric. Al-
Hayat reported that Iranian-Syrian consultations with Patriotic
Union of Kurdistan leader Jalal Talabani were aimed at "producing
an action plan to confront any developments concerning U.S. plans
to topple Saddam." The Jordanian weekly Al-Majd reported on
November 30 that Syrian officials had warned Talabani and other
opposition leaders "of the dangers of submitting to U.S. and
British schemes to topple the Iraqi regime, and of the dangers of
becoming part of these foreign powers' plans that would violate
Iraq's national sovereignty and threaten Iraq – state and people
- with division and fragmentation." Talabani allegedly responded
that he understood Syria's concerns, and would "refuse to
cooperate with any foreign party that plans to topple the Iraqi
regime or divide Iraq on an ethnic or sectarian basis." Syria
will reportedly express the same concerns to Kurdistan Democratic
Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani when he visits Damascus in the
near future.
Still, it is hard to believe that, even considering recent
attempts at rapprochement between Syria, Iran and Iraq, the
agenda of Tehran and Damascus is to keep Saddam in power. Iran
was involved with a brutal eight-year war with Iraq and continues
to support the Iraqi opposition. Iraq in turn supports the
Iranian opposition. Syria backed Iran through the Iran-Iraq war,
and has been Tehran's most reliable ally in the region. No, the
increased tempo of contacts between Syrian and Iranian officials
and leaders of the Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish opposition factions
in Iraq in the past few weeks, and additional rhetoric from those
meetings, suggests that, while actively opposing the U.S. plans
for Iraq, Iran and Syria would still like to remove Saddam
themselves.
Iraq's main Shiite opposition leader, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer
al-Hakim, chairman of the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, on November 29 lashed out on U.S. plans to
topple Saddam. "Change must take place from inside [Iraq]," al-
Hakim told Al-Hayat. "Cooperation between the army, the tribes
and all influential Sunnite, Shiite, Kurd and Arab forces is
necessary. We are not prepared to cooperate with the United
States or the major powers to overthrow Saddam Hussein because
their intervention would harm the Iraqi people and their future,"
he said from his headquarters in Tehran.
Sunni Iraqi Homeland Party leader, Mishan al-Juburi stated from
his headquarters in Damascus that Saddam's overthrow is "Iraq's
business and not that of the U.S." He further stated, " It is not
possible to be a patriot and cooperate with those who have
completely destroyed Iraq." He is scheduled to visit Tehran
before the end of this week on the invitation of al-Hakim,
reportedly to thank al-Hakim and Tehran for rejecting U.S
intervention in Iraq's affairs and for rejecting any military
strike against Iraq. Al-Juburi added that the purpose of his
visit to Iran was, " so that we can unite ranks with those who
are opposed to a strike against Iraq." Additionally, Muhammud
Taqi al-Muddarisi, head of the Iranian supported Islamic Action
Organization, recently met with Syrian Vice President Abd al-
Halim Khaddam and representatives of 18 Iraqi opposition factions
in an attempt "to unite the ranks of the opposition."
In short, the Iran and Syria are all in favor of the overthrow of
Saddam Hussein, just not under U.S. direction. They are not even
opposed to foreign meddling in Iraq, as long as they are the
foreigners. One possible motive for Iran and Syria to attempt to
undermine U.S. influence among the Iraqi opposition is to
forestall any U.S. attempts to establish a pro-U.S. government in
Iraq. This is an experience that Iran still bitterly remembers.
In addition, if the rhetoric is to be believed, Iran and Syria
oppose the breakup of Iraq. While this may be an attempt to keep
out Turkish influence in northern Iraq, fragmentation of Iraq is
very attractive to some in the Iraqi opposition, particularly the
Kurds. While the U.S. has to overcome its own clumsiness and
unreliability to attract and direct the Iraqi opposition, Tehran
and Damascus will have to generate an attractive alternative to
an independent Kurdistan if they are to launch their own
uprising. Still, they're evidently trying.